Hurricane Now Blogs

Here’s the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters’ “WunderBlog“:

There’s a church in Key West called the St. Mary’s Star of the Sea Roman Catholic Church. In 1922, a nun built a “hurricane grotto” on the grounds of the church in memory of the 600 who died during the great Atlantic-Gulf hurricane of Sept. 10, 1919, a Category 4 hurricane that made a direct hit on Key West. The nun vowed that as long as the grotto stood, Key West would not suffer the brunt of another hurricane. Key West residents regularly make pilgrimages to the grotto to pray for protection from hurricanes. And so far, the grotto has worked—no Key West resident has died from a hurricane strike since the 1919 hurricane. I’ve heard from at least one Key West resident that plans to pay a visit to the grotto today, which I think is a good idea. A little divine intervention is what is needed this Hurricane Season of 2005. The current model runs were apparently not initialized last night with the “grotto factor”, since they all show Rita’s path taking the storm over or very near Key West. Still, the average error in a 24 hour forecast has been about 60 miles the past 10 years, so Key West may yet miss the brunt of this hurricane.

And a hurricane it will be. Satellite images show that deep convection has now wrapped all the way around the west side of Rita and into the center, where a complete eyewall is starting to form. Spiral bands from the storm are already visible on Miami long-range radar as Rita moves towards Florida and expands in size. Winds at George Town in the Bahama Islands were 37 mph, gusting to 57 mph at noon today. The 12:15 satellite intensity estimate from the University of Wisconsin was 991 mb and 68 mph surface winds. There won’t be another hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm until 2pm EDT today, but I think we can anticipate that they will find a continuation of the strengthening trend observed today. Rita will be a hurricane by early this evening, and probably a Category 2 hurricane tomorrow. A 6 - 9 foot storm surge can be expected near and 50 miles to the to the north of where Rita’s eye passes, and a foot higher if she hits near high tide (11am Tuesday). The surge plus the wind damage will cause hundreds of millions in damage in the Keys, but should cause no major loss of life, since I’m sure after Katrina residents of low-lying areas under evacuation orders will be compelled to comply more readily than usual. Key West and all of the lower and middle Keys were given a mandatory evacuation order this morning. This is a bit of a risky call by the emergency managers; They’ll never get everyone out in time, and risk having people stuck on the bridges when the storm hits. Still, they have a lot of experience evacuating the Keys the past seven years, so hopefully it will go smoothly.
Rita in the Gulf
Once Rita emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, continued strengthening is expected, and she will likely attain at least Category 3 status by Wednesday. However, water temperatures over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico are 1 – 2C cooler than those near Key West, thanks to all the cold water stirred up by Katrina. This cooler water should not allow Rita to grow as strong as Katrina (not a very bold statement, considering Katrina was the 4th strongest hurricane on record!) Rita will probably grow to a Category 3, and has a chance at Category 4 status if she passes over the Gulf Stream loop current, an eddy of very warm water south of New Orleans near 26N latitude.
Where will Rita hit?
Take your pick of today’s models runs:

GFDL: Central Louisiana (Houma)
GFS: Western Louisiana (Lake Charles)
UKMET: Eastern Texas (Galveston)
NOGAPS: South Texas (Corpus Christi)

Each set of model runs has moved the track of Rita progressively further east. The official NHC forecast has been following along, but staying further back. What we’ve seen so far this hurricane season is that when the models start trending this way, that’s where the storm eventually winds up going. So my best guess is that Rita will hit Louisiana Friday as a Category 3 hurricane. What’s the average error for a 5-day forecast? 270 miles. So, everyone from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican border is still at risk.

Here’s an update from Glenn, sending us the bulletin from Dare County, on the Outer Banks of North Carolina:

I thought you might like to see this. The following comes from the official website for Dare County government:

Bulletin Number: 4
Date/Time: 9/12/2005 5:33:18 PM

5pm Update on Monday September 12

No evacuation orders have been issued for any areas of Dare County as of 5:00 pm Monday, September 12. The Dare County Control Group will meet on Tuesday, September 13, at 6:00 a.m. to review updated information from the National Hurricane Center regarding the forecasted track of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Residents and visitors should continue to closely monitor local radio stations, NOAA weather radio, and cable Channel 20 for updates concerning local decisions regarding Tropical Storm Ophelia.

Tropical Storm Ophelia is currently (as of 5:00 pm on September 12) 260 miles south/southwest of Cape Hatteras and is currently moving west/northwest at 3 mph. A gradual turn toward the north is expected within the next 24 hours.

The North Carolina Division of Forest Resources asks that everyone be extremely careful with all fires due to the high winds and very dry conditions currently being experienced in the Outer Banks. Over the weekend there have been numerous wildfires statewide. For more information on prevention of forest fires contact Jamie Dunbar, Dare County Forester with the NC Division of Forest Resources, at 252-473-2531.

The National Park Service has made several closings throughout Dare County. The Frisco Campground on Hatteras Island will close at 9 a.m. on Tuesday, Sept 13. The Oregon Inlet Campground on Bodie Island is closed. The Hatteras Island Visitor Center, Bodie Island Visitor Center, and the Cape Hatteras Lighthouse will close at the end of the day Monday, Sept. 12 and will not reopen until storm recovery is complete. The Salvo Day Use Area facility is closed. Due to possible flooded conditions of Seashore beaches and unpredictable tidal flooding, beach driving is not advisable. Seashore beaches may be closed to vehicle use starting Tuesday, Sept. 13. Wright Brothers National Memorial and Fort Raleigh National Historic Site will also close at the end of the day Monday, Sept. 12 and will not reopen until storm recovery is complete. All National Park Service facilities on Ocracoke are closed.

Here’s the latest update from Glenn Yarbrough on the approach of Hurricane Ophelia, from the Outer Banks of North Carolina:

As of the issuing of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (5pm Sunday), we’re still not sure if Ophelia is going to come to the northern Outer Banks. But, according to the latest local National Weather service forecast, we’re expecting over 4 and a half inches of rain for the Kitty Hawk area, and as much as 6 inches of rain in Corolla in the next 3 days. And, these figures don’t yet take into account any storm surge we might get from the sounds as Ophelia approaches from the southwest, assuming she does that. There were a few of sections of both highway 158 and highway 12 here that were underwater after Isabel left. The same could happen again this week.

The current forecast track for Ophelia takes her to a point roughly southwest of us, and then brings her roughly to the northeast of us after she crosses the sound. This is a lot different from the track that Isabel took a few years ago. Isabel was more powerful, but the northern Outer Banks didn’t have the storm center come right over this area. What the differences will be as far as the flooding and wind damage possibilities, we just don’t know.

Non-residents on Ocracoke Island have been asked to leave. That’s the only evacuation order I’ve heard of for this area so far.

At least one of the summer rental management companies on the northern Outer Banks has begun securing outside furniture and other items for oceanfront houses it manages that are not occupied this week. By securing those homes first, even if the storm misses this area, the company will have the rest of the week to put all the secured items back into place.

Update from Bob King of the Palm Beach Post, who is getting ready for the arrival of Katrina:

This will no doubt change, but right now the forecast is for three days of heavy rain starting tomorrow. And for Thursday to Friday afternoon, some of us will see winds that will remind us of Frances and Jeanne.

The wind: In Boca Raton (the part of Palm Beach County closest to Katrina’s path), sustained winds will be above 50 mph with gusts in the low 80s from around midnight Thursday until almost noon Friday. You can view the National Weather Service’s hour-by-hour forecast here. (You might have to click on the “submit” button to get it to work. If the link doesn’t work for some reason, you’ll just have to take my word for it. It’s been on and off all day.)

The further north you go, the less fierce the winds should be.

Rain: Totals through Sunday could hit 15 inches from the Upper Keys to around Boca, and up to 10 inches in most of Palm Beach County and part of Martin County, according to this map from the South Florida Water Management District.

Should you board your windows? The answer is yes if you’re in a hurricane warning area, the National Weather Service’s Jim Lushine says. The weather service will probably issue hurricane warnings later tonight.

After all, Lushine notes, a lot of Palm Beach County didn’t feel anything worse than Category 1 winds last year. And this time, we’re on the strong end of the hurricane.

Fortunately, the brand-new shutters I ordered six months ago are due to arrive any day … in December.

Check out this latest update from Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground:

The NHC 5pm discussion mentions that an experimental intensification model is forecasting a 57% chance that Katrina will undergo rapid intensification Thursday just before landfall in South Florida. The GFDL model is also calling for rapid intensification. This means that Katrina could be a Category 3 hurricane when it hits South Florida. The current thinking is still that there is enough dry air around Katrina to make it a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane at landfall, but keep in mind that hurricane intensity forecasts are very unreliable.

From Bob King of the Palm Beach Post, where they’re paying very close attention to Katrina:

“OK, let’s get the inevitable newspaper headline puns out of the way, shall we?

“Tropical Storm Katrina officially formed this morning, the National Hurricane Center said at 8:05 a.m. EDT.

“So no, South Florida will not be walking on sunshine in the next several days. And unfortunately, it looks like this storm won’t be going down to Liverpool* to do nothing anytime soon.

“It’s heading right for us. This time, the models are pretty much in agreement.

“The big worry with this storm should be rain, especially the way Katrina is crawling along at 8 mph. But it also could wash ashore as a weak Category 1 hurricane, the National Hurricane Center says in its discussion. The official forecast puts it just under the hurricane threshold. Tropical storm watches are in effect as far north as Vero Beach, and those could be supplemented today by tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches.

“And yes, the hurricane center is monitoring some tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic that could be creating some news in a couple weeks. (There’s a really hard to read map here.) But those are not our main problem right now.

“Anyone else miss that Saharan dust?”

(*In the Eighties music trivia department: Yes, Katrina and the Waves wrote that song too. The Bangles only covered it. So you folks in your leg-warmers and Wham! T-shirts waving your hands in the air, just sit yourselves down.)

With a new tropical depression, number 12 (it used to be number 10) forming out at sea, residents of south Florida need to keep watch for the next tropical storm. Bob King of the Palm Beach Post is on the storm watch:

The remnants of Tropical Depression 10 are about to morph into Tropical Depression 12, the National Hurricane Center reports. And the result could be days of rain for South and Central Florida.

This system is expected to become Tropical Storm (and perhaps Hurricane) Katrina, but maybe not until crossing into the Gulf of Mexico. But Palm Beach County might go into a tropical storm watch as soon as this evening, the National Weather Service tells us. The weather service has already declared a hazardous weather outlook for South Florida.

Worst-case scenario: This thing stalls south of us, leaving us on the rainy side of the system, then meanders northward, dropping rain the whole way.

The Skeetobite map of the model forecasts is here.

The South Florida Water Management District warns: District-wide rains of 4” with local rainfall on the order of 8” are forecast over the next week. Westerly steering winds will focus afternoon thunderstorm activity west today and Wednesday with showers south and along the east coast during the nights and mornings. Look for rains to increase significantly as the tropical disturbance moves across the area Thursday and Friday with heaviest rains south and east.

What do you think about this lull in the hurricane season? Are you ready for the possibility of another storm developing right now off the coast of Africa? Send us your thoughts, to info@hurricanenow.com. In the meantime, consider these observations from Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground:

“No hurricane season has ever gone at full tilt all the way from July to October. Active seasons have always had quiet periods when the large scale wind patterns alternate to a different mode, creating more wind shear over the tropics. This year, that quiet period is here now, and is forecast to continue for at least a few more days. However, this may change next week. The GFS model predicts that the high shear values that have dominated the Caribbean for the past few weeks will finally relax. And beginning Friday August 26, shear values may relax over the rest of the primary hurricane genesis area in the mid-Atlantic. The GFS shows an endless succession of tropical storms developing from tropical waves moving off of the coast of Africa beginning late next week. And from August 30 continuing through the end of the GFS’s 16-day forecast period, the model predicts two and sometime three simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. This prediction has been maintained over at least the past four runs of the GFS model, so it is not a fluke one can blame on a single bad model run.”

My, how things change! This latest update from Dr. Jeff Masters of the Weather Underground:

“The Air Force Hurricane Hunters flew into the remnants of TD 10 east of Puerto Rico this afternoon, and found that the system no longer had a closed circulation. Satellite images show that the system has deteriorated significantly this afternoon, with very little deep convection occurring. Surface winds measured by the Quikscat satellite are under 20 knots and TD 10’s remains have become a tropical wave over the Atlantic. Regeneration into a tropical depression is very unlikely, as this would take several days, and the system will be experiencing increasing shear by Sunday.

“I can’t see any obvious reason why the system fell apart today; vertical wind shear values have continued to decrease, and are now down to 5-10 knots. Water vapor satellite imagery shows no dry air around the system. Situtations like this emphasize how little we understand about the formation process of tropical storms.

“The remainder of the tropics are quiet. There is considerable cloud cover over portions of the southern Caribbean, but wind shear levels are near 20 knots over most of the region—too high to permit tropical development.”

Jeff Masters

Here is some of the latest wisdom on the future of TD 10 from Dr. Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at the Weather Underground, one of the longest-running weather websites:

“The remains of TD 10 have survived some pretty significant shearing winds, and the system continues to spin and track west-northwestward at 10 mph towards the northernmost Leeward Islands. Wind shear over the remains of TD 10 has decreased substantially over the past 24 hours—from 15-25 knots yesterday down to 10-20 knots today. The satellite presentation has improved considerably, with frequent bursts of deep convection firing up to the north and east of the center. However, the strong upper-level winds from the west to southwest that are shearing the system are not letting any of the convection that fires up persist. Surface winds measured by theQuikscat satellite show peak velocities below tropical depression strength—20-25 knots north of the center. Global models indicate that the system may enter a region of lower wind shear tonight or Thursday, which will likely allow the convection in the system to persist and the system to re-organize into Tropical Depression 10 again.

“If TD 10 does reform, the current thinking of the track models is that the system will continue to the west-northwest under the influence of a strong high pressure ridge over Bermuda. This track would bring the system north of Puerto Rico and near the Bahama Islands by early next week. A strong trough is forecast to move off the East Coast of the U.S. on Monday, which may induce a more northwesterly motion five days from now. However, there may be some hostile winds and dry air for the storm to overcome on its trek towards the U.S.—both the GFDL and GFS models dissipate the system by Saturday. The SHIPS intensity model disagrees, strengthening the system into Tropical Storm Jose with 60 mph winds by Saturday…”

You can read more of Masters’ weather blog here.